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Jan. 23, 2005
Principles of Macroeconomics


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HARARE (AFP) - Zimbabwe, grappling with a record 2.2 million percent inflation, has introduced a new 100-billion-dollar bank note in a bid to tackle rampant cash shortages, the central bank said Saturday.
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The new note will go into circulation on Monday, the bank said in a statement cited by state media, joining about half a dozen new high denomination notes already issued this year.
In January, a 10-million-dollar note was issued, then a 50-million-dollar note in April. In May, notes for 100 million and 250 million dollars were issued, swiftly followed by those for five billion, 25 billion and 50 billion.
The southern African nation, currently gripped by a post-election crisis, has been ravaged by hyperinflation which shot up from 165,000 percent in February to 2.2 million in June.
Independent economists however believe the official inflation figure is grossly understated, estimating it could be running between 10 million and 15 million percent.
Zimbabwe's chronic economic crisis has left at least 80 percent of the population living below the poverty threshold and mass shortages of basic goods in shops.
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When I speak on college campuses, students often ask what can be done about the "problem" of young people who don't care enough to vote. I always say that I don't see it as much of problem "because most of you don't know anything yet. I'm OK with you not voting!" The students laugh, but I'm not joking. It wasn't until I was about 40 that I started to believe I had acquired a good sense of what domestic policies might serve people well. (I still have no clue about international affairs.) I only started to think I knew what ought to be done after years of reporting and reading voraciously to absorb arguments from left and right. The idea that most voters vote without having done much of that work is, frankly, scary. ![]() U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivers remarks about China during a conference at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington May 2, 2007. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst (UNITED STATES)
I'm not alone in this concern. An economist at George Mason University, Bryan Caplan, says few people think about their vote or even see any benefit in doing so. His new book, "The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies", argues that most voters cast their ballot on the basis of irrational biases about economic matters. That's why so many candidates hostile to free markets, profits, free world trade and immigration get elected. People tend to acquire their wrong opinions about economic policy packaged in worldviews they inherited while growing up. They never test their views against the evidence because that would be unsettling. No one likes having his worldview challenged. So people vote for candidates who make them feel good. They vote irrationally. Caplan stresses that most voters see no reason to do otherwise because they don't bear the consequences of their choices. This irrationality does not carry over into their personal lives because there they bear the brunt of their own decisions. But when irrationality is free, notes Caplan, people will indulge their biases. Caplan divides them into three categories: antimarket bias, antiforeign bias, make-work bias and pessimistic bias. Antimarket bias describes people feeling that trade and profit are zero-sum games, that one person's gain is another person's loss. They haven't learned that free exchange is win-win and that in a free market, profit comes from cost-cutting innovation. Antiforeign bias, perhaps a vestige of primitive man, consists of distrusting "them" even though our prosperity increases according to how global the division of labor is. Foreigners don't want to invade us; they want to sell us useful things. Make-work bias is the belief that what makes us rich is jobs, rather than goods, and so anything that eliminates jobs is bad. If that were really true, we could prosper by outlawing all inventions created after 1920. Think of all the jobs that would create! Finally, pessimistic bias is the view that any economic problem is proof of general decline. Lots of people actually think we're poorer than our grandparents were! As a result of these biases, people often support price controls, foreign-trade barriers and laws against job "outsourcing," and oppose immigration. Most economists are eager to demonstrate that these policies are bad for society, but most people aren't interested in evidence. They're interested in what confirms their worldview and makes them feel good. So they often vote for protectionists, anti-immigration advocates and other opponents of the free market. Caplan's book isn't calculated to cheer up those of us who favor more market and less democracy. He offers some solutions that aren't likely to be adopted any time soon, such as permitting only the economically literate to vote, or giving them more votes, or eliminating get-out-the-vote campaigns (which serve only to get out the uneducated vote). More practically, he thinks that "Everyone who knows some economics" should grab every opportunity to teach it. That's what I try to do with my "20/20" segments, television specials and the Stossel in the Classroom program, which brings economic ideas to high-school and college classrooms. I hope we will create some rational voters in the process. |
The new reading on the gross domestic product,
released by the Commerce Department Thursday, showed
that economic growth in the January-through-March
quarter was much weaker. Government statisticians
slashed by more than half their first estimate of a 1.3
percent growth rate for the quarter. The main culprits for the downgrade: the bloated
trade deficit and businesses cutting investment in
supplies of the goods they hold in inventories. "We are still keeping our head above water - barely,"
said economist Ken Mayland of ClearView Economics. Supply
and Demand in the News (Jonesboro Sun, Feb. 13 2007) Valentine's
Day increases demand, price of flowers Readings: PowerPoint Slides If you're interesting in learning more about
Social Security, click on one of the audio clips below. NPR Audio clips on Social Security ▪ Feb.
16, 2005
▪Jan. 11, 2005
Social Security 'Crisis' and Costs of Privatization
▪Jan. 5, 2005
Examining the History of Social Security
▪November 11, 2004
Social Security Privatization Doesn't Equal Solvency
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May 31, 1:14 PM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
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(AP) Shoppers stroll along New
York's Fifth Ave., Tuesday, May 29,
2007. Consumer confidence bounced...
Full Image
By Mark Randall
JONESBORO -- Buying flowers for a Valentine's sweetheart? Plan on paying a
little bit more this year.
A recent crop freeze in California, where much of the
nation's cut flowers are grown, has sent prices on some flowers up by as much
as 12 to 14 percent.
The good news, though, is that gift-givers won't have to pay more for roses.
California is one of the leading cut flower and rose producing regions in the
country, but according to area florists, most of the roses in area stores are
grown outside the United States.
"Most roses are from Central and South America," said Bridgette
Mills Arnold, owner of Posey Peddler in Jonesboro. "Their climate
generally doesn't have a problem."
Arnold said the freeze really hasn't had much impact on her business.
The freeze damaged three-quarters of California's citrus crops but had minimal
effect on flowers, which are mostly grown in greenhouses, she said.
Arnold pre-ordered her roses back in December and has standing orders for most
of the rest of her flowers all year, which means she will be paying the same
price no matter how the market fluctuates.
She said she has been able to hold the line this year on a cost for a dozen
roses at $80, she said, despite the demand during the annual lovers' holiday.
Valentine's Day is one of the busiest times for cut flowers aside from
Mother's Day. According to the Society of American Florists, 180 million roses
were produced for Valentine's Day in 2006.
Jim Watt, president of the Arkansas Florists Association,
said roses typically cost about $10-15 more around Valentine's Day because of
the high demand.
"They're always higher on Valentine's Day," Watts said. "We pay
more for them at Valentine's Day. Everybody thinks we're getting rich off of
Valentine's day, but the wholesaler pays more; the jobbers pay more; the
importers pay more. It's just a domino.
"I would suspect that there are very few flower shops in Arkansas that
are charging what they should be charging for a dozen roses."
Area florists reported keeping prices level despite increases in the costs to
ship them. A dozen roses range from about $65-85 a dozen.
"They have stayed about the same," said Henry Cooksey, owner of
Cooksey's Flower. "We're paying a little more for freight, though."
Cooksey said while consumers won't see that much of a difference in the prices
of roses, he has heard that certain types of filler flowers and tulips will
likely drive the cost of less traditional arrangements up in price longer
after Valentine's Day has passed.
"I have all of my Valentine's Day flower order in. So it's not going to
affect us during Valentine's Day," Cooksey said. "But I have been
told that somewhere in the near future it is going to be a problem."
Laura Lamb, owner of St. Pierre's Flowers & Gifts, said she already can't
get gladiolus, which aren't a big deal at Valentine's Day. However, she uses
such filler flowers for other customer requests, such as arrangements for
funerals.
"I haven't had too much of a crunch except for glads," Lamb said.
"Everything else has been pretty available."
Lamb said a lot of the cut flowers come from out of the country from places
like Holland.
Amsterdam is the world's largest flower market where more than a million
flowers a minute are sold. Dutch growers take their flowers to market daily.
Those flowers are then sold and shipped and are available in shops in the U.S.
the next day.
"A lot of the flowers like the lilies and tulips come from Holland,"
Lamb said.
Watt said some flowers from California like snap dragons and larkspurs have
been effected. But, overall, he has not seen any problems with the flowers
coming out of California and doubts prices will go up because of the freeze.
"It's scare tactics," Watt said. "We've been getting calls from
Miami, and they have plenty of roses. And the tulips, lilies and iris coming
out of California -- the quality is excellent."